Keenan Allen

Indianapolis Colts · WR · #10

DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1043 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

vs HOU, 2025-12-27: 1, missed, 3 targets
at DEN, 2026-01-04: 7, cleared, 13 targets
at NE, 2026-01-11: 3, missed, 8 targets
vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 6, cleared, 6 targets
at KC, 2026-09-20: 1, missed, 5 targets
vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 6, cleared, 9 targets
at PIT, 2026-10-11: 5, cleared, 9 targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-18: 8, cleared, 11 targets
at MIN, 2026-10-25: 3, missed, 3 targets
at JAX, 2026-11-01: 7, cleared, 7 targets

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
7 games with IND; before that, LAC
Over 4.5 with IND: 5 of 7; his last 10 games before: 3 of 10
Defense vs wide receivers
DAL allow 11.9 receptions a game to wide receivers: 14th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7 targets · 2026: 7.1 (7 games)
Target share: 22% last 3 games · 21% over 7 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs DAL

Receptions: 5 in 5 targets, Dec 21, 2025 (away)

Over 4.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against DAL on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 4.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 5.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −104
Books’ fair: 47%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −108

Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −108, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−20003 books	—	8/10
−5603 books	—	8/10
−2203 books	—	6/10
−1043 books	−1411 book	6/10
+1853 books	—	5/10
+3303 books	—	3/10
+5503 books	—	1/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−104Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−104Best	−141Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−104Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: −120 → −104 since first seen