Keaton Mitchell

Los Angeles Chargers · RB · #34

LAC @ BAL · Mon, Nov 16 8:15 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price +1162 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 on the road).

vs CIN, 2025-11-27: 2, missed, 3 targets
at CIN, 2025-12-14: 0, missed, 1 targets
at GB, 2025-12-27: 2, missed, 2 targets
vs LV, 2026-09-20: 1, missed, 1 targets
at BUF, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 3 targets
at SEA, 2026-10-04: 5, cleared, 6 targets
vs DEN, 2026-10-11: 3, cleared, 4 targets
at KC, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 1 targets
at LAR, 2026-11-01: 3, cleared, 3 targets
vs HOU, 2026-11-08: 3, cleared, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Monday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Justin Herbert: Questionable (finger). He led LAC in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 2.5 with Herbert at quarterback: 5 of 7; with another LAC quarterback: no games
New team
7 games with LAC; before that, BAL
Over 2.5 with LAC: 5 of 7; his last 10 games before: 0 of 10
Defense vs running backs
BAL allow 4.0 receptions a game to running backs: 21st most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 2.7 targets · 2026: 3.1 (7 games)
Target share: 8% last 3 games · 10% over 7 games this season

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.2; −0.3 vs line
Median: 2.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 46%; at +116
Books’ fair: 43%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair −100

Research, not a pick. At +116 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −100, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−14001 book	—	8/10
−2501 book	—	7/10
+1162 books	−1542 books	5/10
+2601 book	—	1/10
+5201 book	—	1/10
+9201 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel12 min ago	+116Best	−154Best
Pinnacle12 min ago	+116Best	−154Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:17 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −102 → +116 since first seen