KC Concepcion
CLE @ NO · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Under 41.5
63%5 of 8L8
Under 41.5 Receiving Yards hit in 5 of his last 8 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–94.3 receiving yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 41.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Deshaun Watson: Questionable (concussion). He led CLE in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 41.5 with Watson at quarterback: 5 of 8; with another CLE quarterback: no games
Defense vs wide receivers
NO allow 143.6 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 17th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6.1 (8 games)
Target share: 19% last 3 games · 19% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at PIT
3rd straight road game
Splits
Under 41.5 · L8 · counts, not in orderNo game against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L8 · Under 41.5
- Average
- 44
- +2.5 vs line
- Median
- 37
- −4.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 63%
- 5 of 8
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −118
- Books’ fair
- 49%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −107
Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −107, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L8| Line | Over | Under | L8 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4001 book | — | 2/8 | |
| −2454 books | — | 3/8 | |
| −1374 books | — | 5/8 | |
| −1224 books | −1183 books | 5/8 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 5/8 | |
| −1142 books | −1142 books | 6/8 | |
| +1204 books | — | 6/8 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks at 41.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 41.5 | Under 41.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada6 min ago | −120Best | −110Best |
| betPARX6 min ago | −122 | −118 |
| BetRivers6 min ago | −122 | −118 |
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −122 | — |
Prices as of 12:50 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
41.543.5 → 41.5 since first seen