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KC Concepcion

Cleveland Browns · WR · #1

CLE @ NO · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder42.5
Under 42.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1243 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 42.5

63%5 of 8L8

Under 42.5 Receiving Yards hit in 5 of his last 8 games (3 of 5 on the road).

  1. at JAX, 2026-09-13: 43, missed, 5 targets
  2. at TB, 2026-09-20: 28, hit, 6 targets
  3. vs CAR, 2026-09-27: 9, hit, 9 targets
  4. vs PIT, 2026-10-01: 64, missed, 8 targets
  5. at NYJ, 2026-10-11: 5, hit, 1 targets
  6. vs BAL, 2026-10-18: 37, hit, 6 targets
  7. at TEN, 2026-10-25: 129, missed, 10 targets
  8. at PIT, 2026-11-01: 37, hit, 4 targets
Under hitMissedThe 42.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–94.3 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 42.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Deshaun Watson: Questionable (concussion). He led CLE in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 42.5 with Watson at quarterback: 5 of 8; with another CLE quarterback: no games

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    NO allow 143.6 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 17th most of 32

    7 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6.1 (8 games)

    Target share: 19% last 3 games · 19% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 at PIT

    3rd straight road game

Splits

Under 42.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L8 · Under 42.5

Average
44
+1.5 vs line
Median
37
−5.5 vs line
Hit rate
63%
5 of 8
Price implies
55%
at −124
Books’ fair
51%
margin removed
Our chance
52%
estimate · fair −110

Research, not a pick. At −124 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −110, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L8
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL8
−2504 books—3/8
−1414 books—5/8
−1201 book−1101 book5/8
−1183 books−1242 books5/8
−1152 books−1152 books6/8
+1164 books—6/8
+1941 book—6/8
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 42.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 42.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 42.5Under 42.5
betPARX5 min ago−118Best−124Best
BetRivers4 min ago−118Best−124Best
Bally Bet4 min ago−118Best—
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 4:10 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

42.5

43.5 → 42.5 since first seen

KC Concepcion's full game log and splits