Kaelon Black

San Francisco 49ers · RB · #26

SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM

Over Under33.5

Over 33.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1146 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%4 of 8L8

Over 33.5 Rushing Yards cleared in 4 of his last 8 games (2 of 3 on the road).

at LAR, 2026-09-10: 65, cleared, 14 carries
vs MIA, 2026-09-20: 25, missed, 7 carries
vs ARI, 2026-09-27: 17, missed, 4 carries
vs DEN, 2026-10-04: 13, missed, 6 carries
at SEA, 2026-10-11: 16, missed, 6 carries
vs WSH, 2026-10-19: 34, cleared, 8 carries
at ATL, 2026-10-25: 63, cleared, 12 carries
vs LV, 2026-11-08: 70, cleared, 11 carries

ClearedMissedThe 33.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 9.6–71.7 rushing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 33.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs running backs
DAL allow 112.8 rushing yards a game to running backs: 4th most of 32
9 games
Carries
Last 3: 10.3 carries · 2026: 8.5 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs LV
Game lines
SF −4 · total 56 (6 sportsbooks)
SF's games this season closed at 48.5 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 33.5 · L8 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L8 · Over 33.5

Average: 37.9; +4.4 vs line
Median: 29.5; −4 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 4 of 8
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −117

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −117, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L8

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L8
−5004 books	—	5/8
−2151 book	—	5/8
−1594 books	—	4/8
−1146 books	−1155 books	4/8
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/8
+1484 books	—	3/8
+3004 books	—	3/8

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 33.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 33.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 33.5	Under 33.5
Bally Bet6 min ago	−110Best	—
betPARX6 min ago	−110Best	−118
BetRivers6 min ago	−112	−120
FanDuel6 min ago	−114	−114Best
Bovada6 min ago	−115	−115
Pinnacle6 min ago	−116	−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:42 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

33.5

No move since first seen