Juwan Johnson

New Orleans Saints · TE · #83

CAR @ NO · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1345 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at TEN, 2025-12-28: 4, cleared, 4 targets
at ATL, 2026-01-04: 3, cleared, 5 targets
at DET, 2026-09-13: 3, cleared, 7 targets
at BAL, 2026-09-20: 4, cleared, 4 targets
vs LV, 2026-09-27: 8, cleared, 8 targets
vs ATL, 2026-10-05: 6, cleared, 8 targets
vs MIN, 2026-10-11: 4, cleared, 5 targets
at NYG, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 2 targets
vs PIT, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 3 targets
vs CLE, 2026-11-08: 2, missed, 2 targets

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunTargets
Last 3: 2.3 targets · 2026: 4.9 (8 games) · down 53%
Target share: 7% last 3 games · 13% over 8 games this season
Quarterback
Tyler Shough led NO in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 2.5 with Shough at quarterback: 15 of 18; with another NO quarterback: 18 of 30
Defense vs tight ends
CAR allow 5.0 receptions a game to tight ends: 20th most of 32
8 games
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CLE

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CAR in his last 10; Over 2.5 cleared in 2 of 5 against CAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CAR

Receptions: 4 in 4 targets, Dec 14, 2025 (home)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against CAR on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 3.5; +1 vs line
Median: 3.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −134
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −134 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −140, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3853 books	—	8/10
−1345 books	+1083 books	7/10
+1753 books	—	5/10
+3603 books	—	2/10
+7003 books	—	2/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bally Bet10 min ago	−134Best	—
betPARX10 min ago	−134Best	−108
BetRivers10 min ago	−134Best	—
FanDuel10 min ago	−144	+108Best
Pinnacle10 min ago	−144	+108Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Over: −144 → −134 since first seen