Justin Herbert
HOU @ LAC · Sun, Nov 8 4:05 PM
Game log against Under 235.5
50%5 of 10L10
Under 235.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 176.8–292.1 pass+rush yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 235.5 · facts from past games, not a pickPass attempts + carries
Last 3: 36 attempts + carries · 2026: 35 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at LAR
Game lines
LAC +4.5 · total 40.5 (9 sportsbooks)
LAC's games this season closed at 44.9 on average (7 games)
HOU injuries
Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, Questionable, 8 tackles); Reed Blankenship (S, Questionable, 6.2 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)
Splits
Under 235.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
Last vs HOU
Pass+Rush Yards: 273 in 38 attempts + carries, Dec 27, 2025 (home)
Under 235.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against HOU on record
L10 · Under 235.5
- Average
- 241.2
- +5.7 vs line
- Median
- 234
- −1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −121
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −121 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1573 books | — | 3/10 | |
| — | — | 5/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 5/10 | |
| −1213 books | −1212 books | 5/10 | |
| +1173 books | — | 7/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks at 235.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 235.5 | Under 235.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX5 min ago | −121Best | −121Best |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −121Best | −121Best |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −121Best | — |
Prices as of 1:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
235.5232.5 → 235.5 since first seen