Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers · QB · #10

HOU @ LAC · Sun, Nov 8 4:05 PM

Over Under18.5

Over 18.5 Completions, typical price −1134 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 18.5 Completions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 at home).

at DAL, 2025-12-21: 23, cleared, 29 attempts
vs HOU, 2025-12-27: 21, cleared, 32 attempts
at NE, 2026-01-11: 19, cleared, 31 attempts
vs ARI, 2026-09-13: 17, missed, 27 attempts
vs LV, 2026-09-20: 15, missed, 27 attempts
at BUF, 2026-09-27: 20, cleared, 34 attempts
at SEA, 2026-10-04: 19, cleared, 31 attempts
vs DEN, 2026-10-11: 14, missed, 24 attempts
at KC, 2026-10-18: 22, cleared, 37 attempts
at LAR, 2026-11-01: 24, cleared, 32 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 18.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 13.7–26.5 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
HOU allow 23.3 completions a game to quarterbacks: 6th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 31 attempts · 2026: 30.3 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at LAR
Game lines
LAC +4.5 · total 40.5 (8 sportsbooks)
LAC's games this season closed at 44.9 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 18.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs HOU

Completions: 21 in 32 attempts, Dec 27, 2025 (home)

Over 18.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against HOU on record

L10 · Over 18.5

Average: 19.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 19.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −124

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −124, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−10003 books	—	10/10
−3603 books	—	8/10
−1623 books	—	7/10
−1134 books	−1272 books	7/10
+1233 books	—	5/10
+2303 books	—	3/10
+4003 books	—	1/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 18.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 18.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 18.5	Under 18.5
Pinnacle5 min ago	−112Best	−118Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	−113	—
betPARX5 min ago	−113	−127
BetRivers5 min ago	−113	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:37 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

18.5

+100 → −113 since first seen