Josh Downs
DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 3.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.
What's different on Sunday
Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 3.5 with Jones at quarterback: 9 of 19; with another IND quarterback: 13 of 27
Defense vs wide receivers
DAL allow 11.9 receptions a game to wide receivers: 14th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 6.4 (8 games)
Target share: 18% last 3 games · 19% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX
Splits
Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 3.5
- Average
- 3.6
- +0.1 vs line
- Median
- 3.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 48%
- at +110
- Books’ fair
- 44%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 47%
- estimate · fair +114
Research, not a pick. At +110 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair +114, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −6703 books | — | 10/10 | |
| −2103 books | — | 7/10 | |
| +1103 books | −1621 book | 5/10 | |
| +2303 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +4303 books | — | 1/10 | |
| +8003 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet6 min ago | +110Best | — |
| betPARX1 min ago | +110Best | −162Best |
| BetRivers2 min ago | +110Best | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 2:04 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5Over: No move since first seen