Josh Downs

Indianapolis Colts · WR · #2

DAL @ IND · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under35.5

Over 35.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 35.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

vs JAX, 2025-12-28: 34, missed, 5 targets
at HOU, 2026-01-04: 61, cleared, 4 targets
vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 37, cleared, 4 targets
at KC, 2026-09-20: 72, cleared, 9 targets
vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 77, cleared, 11 targets
at WSH, 2026-10-04: 16, missed, 4 targets
at PIT, 2026-10-11: 47, cleared, 6 targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-18: 40, cleared, 8 targets
at MIN, 2026-10-25: 18, missed, 4 targets
at JAX, 2026-11-01: 23, missed, 5 targets

ClearedMissedThe 35.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 11.3–70.9 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 35.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 35.5 with Jones at quarterback: 11 of 19; with another IND quarterback: 16 of 27
Defense vs wide receivers
DAL allow 164.1 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 7th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 6.4 (8 games)
Target share: 18% last 3 games · 19% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at JAX

Splits

Over 35.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DAL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 35.5

Average: 42.5; +7 vs line
Median: 38.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −118

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −118, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1593 books	—	7/10
−1153 books	−1252 books	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
+1063 books	—	5/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 35.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 35.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 35.5	Under 35.5
Bally Bet8 min ago	−115Best	—
betPARX6 min ago	−115Best	−125Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−115Best	−125Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:47 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

35.5

33.5 → 35.5 since first seen