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Jordan Addison

Minnesota Vikings · WR · #3

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
OverUnder39.5
Over 39.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1142 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 39.5

40%4 of 10L10

Over 39.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 at home).

  1. at DAL, 2025-12-14: 66, cleared, 2 targets
  2. at NYG, 2025-12-21: 26, missed, 3 targets
  3. vs DET, 2025-12-25: 0, missed, 1 targets
  4. vs GB, 2026-01-04: 8, missed, 3 targets
  5. vs GB, 2026-09-13: 0, missed, 2 targets
  6. at CHI, 2026-09-20: 21, missed, 5 targets
  7. at TB, 2026-09-27: 90, cleared, 9 targets
  8. vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 52, cleared, 6 targets
  9. vs IND, 2026-10-25: 20, missed, 3 targets
  10. at DET, 2026-11-01: 66, cleared, 8 targets
ClearedMissedThe 39.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 0.3–86.6 receiving yards.

What's different on Monday

Over 39.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season

    Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 39.5 with Murray at quarterback: 3 of 4; with another MIN quarterback: 20 of 41

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    BUF allow 154.0 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 9th most of 32

    7 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 5.5 (6 games)

    Target share: 19% last 3 games · 20% over 6 games this season

  • Rest

    7 days off since Nov 1 at DET

Splits

Over 39.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 39.5

Average
34.9
−4.6 vs line
Median
23.5
−16 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
52%
estimate · fair −107

Research, not a pick. At −111 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −107, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−4501 book—7/10
−3101 book—5/10
−2151 book—4/10
−1142 books−1192 books4/10
+1461 book—4/10
+2301 book—3/10
+3601 book—1/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 39.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 39.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 39.5Under 39.5
Pinnacle5 min ago−111Best−119
FanDuel5 min ago−114−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 12:31 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

39.5

36.5 → 39.5 since first seen

Jordan Addison's full game log and splits