Jonathan Taylor

Indianapolis Colts · RB · #28

MIA @ IND · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1362 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at HOU, 2026-01-04: 2, hit, 2 targets
vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 3, hit, 4 targets
at KC, 2026-09-20: 4, missed, 4 targets
vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 2, hit, 3 targets
at WSH, 2026-10-04: 1, hit, 4 targets
at PIT, 2026-10-11: 3, hit, 4 targets
vs TEN, 2026-10-18: 2, hit, 4 targets
at MIN, 2026-10-25: 2, hit, 3 targets
at JAX, 2026-11-01: 4, missed, 5 targets
vs DAL, 2026-11-08: 5, missed, 5 targets

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Daniel Jones led IND in passing in 9 of 9 games this season
Under 3.5 with Jones at quarterback: 16 of 21; with another IND quarterback: 19 of 19
Defense vs running backs
MIA allow 4.9 receptions a game to running backs: 8th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 4.3 targets · 2026: 4 (9 games)
Target share: 15% last 3 games · 12% over 9 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs DAL

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 1 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs MIA

Receptions: 3 in 3 targets, Sep 7, 2025 (home)

Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against MIA on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 2.8; −0.7 vs line
Median: 2.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −136
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −126 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −135, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7501 book	—	1/10
−2401 book	—	5/10
−1052 books	−1362 books	7/10
+2051 book	—	9/10
+3701 book	—	10/10
+6801 book	—	10/10
+11001 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Pinnacle7 min ago	−105	−126Best
FanDuel6 min ago	+102Best	−136
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:12 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: No move since first seen