Joe Burrow
CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM
Game log against Over 274.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 274.5 Passing Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 137.5–406 passing yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 274.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
ATL allow 237.5 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 16th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 36.7 attempts · 2026: 38.1 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs TEN
Game lines
CIN −3 · total 52.5 (8 sportsbooks)
CIN's games this season closed at 46.8 on average (7 games)
Splits
Over 274.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 274.5
- Average
- 296.5
- +22 vs line
- Median
- 287
- +12.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −121
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −120 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1181 book | −1121 book | 6/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 6/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 6/10 | |
| −1214 books | −1202 books | 6/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 6/10 | |
| +1504 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +2501 book | — | 2/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks at 274.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 274.5 | Under 274.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel4 min ago | −120Best | — |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −121 | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −121 | −120Best |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −121 | −120Best |
Prices as of 9:14 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
274.5268.5 → 274.5 since first seen