Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals · QB · #9

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM

Over Under2.5

Over 2.5 Passing TDs, typical price +1554 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 2.5 Passing TDs cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

vs ARI, 2025-12-28: 2, missed, 31 attempts
vs CLE, 2026-01-04: 3, cleared, 39 attempts
vs TB, 2026-09-13: 1, missed, 35 attempts
at HOU, 2026-09-20: 2, missed, 31 attempts
at PIT, 2026-09-27: 3, cleared, 37 attempts
vs JAX, 2026-10-04: 1, missed, 54 attempts
at MIA, 2026-10-11: 4, cleared, 32 attempts
at BAL, 2026-10-25: 4, cleared, 30 attempts
vs TEN, 2026-11-01: 5, cleared, 48 attempts
at ATL, 2026-11-08: 3, cleared, 29 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 2.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 passing tds.

What's different on Sunday

Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs quarterbacks
PIT allow 0.88 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks: 30th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 35.7 attempts · 2026: 37 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at ATL
Game lines
CIN −3.5 · total 49.5 (7 sportsbooks)
CIN's games this season closed at 47.5 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs PIT

Passing TDs: 3 in 37 attempts, Sep 27 (away)

Over 2.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against PIT on record

L10 · Over 2.5

Average: 2.8; +0.3 vs line
Median: 3; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 39%; at +155
Books’ fair: 36%; margin removed
Our chance: 45%; estimate · fair +124

Research, not a pick. At +168 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair +124, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−33353 books	—	10/10
−2654 books	—	8/10
+1554 books	−2103 books	6/10
+5404 books	—	3/10
+15001 book	—	1/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Passing TDs, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
FanDuel14 min ago	+168Best	−230
Bally Bet15 min ago	+155	—
betPARX15 min ago	+155	−210Best
BetRivers15 min ago	+155	−210Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

+168 → +155 since first seen