Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals · QB · #9

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM

Over Under303.5

Under 303.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 303.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

vs ARI, 2025-12-28: 307, missed, 34 attempts + carries
vs CLE, 2026-01-04: 253, hit, 41 attempts + carries
vs TB, 2026-09-13: 274, hit, 40 attempts + carries
at HOU, 2026-09-20: 206, hit, 32 attempts + carries
at PIT, 2026-09-27: 295, hit, 39 attempts + carries
vs JAX, 2026-10-04: 434, missed, 57 attempts + carries
at MIA, 2026-10-11: 200, hit, 36 attempts + carries
at BAL, 2026-10-25: 304, missed, 32 attempts + carries
vs TEN, 2026-11-01: 472, missed, 51 attempts + carries
at ATL, 2026-11-08: 278, hit, 32 attempts + carries

Under hitMissedThe 303.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 166.7–417.7 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 303.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Pass attempts + carries
Last 3: 38.3 attempts + carries · 2026: 39.9 (8 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at ATL
Game lines
CIN −3.5 · total 49.5 (8 sportsbooks)
CIN's games this season closed at 47.5 on average (8 games)
PIT injuries
Derrick Harmon (DT, Injured Reserve, 3.2 tackles); Brandin Echols (CB, Out, 3 tackles); DeShon Elliott (S, Questionable, 5.6 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)

Splits

Under 303.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs PIT

Pass+Rush Yards: 295 in 39 attempts + carries, Sep 27 (away)

Under 303.5 hit in 2 of 3 games against PIT on record

L10 · Under 303.5

Average: 302.3; −1.2 vs line
Median: 286.5; −17 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −114

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −114, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5603 books	—	2/10
−2503 books	—	4/10
−1273 books	—	6/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
−1143 books	−1152 books	6/10
+1453 books	—	8/10
+2653 books	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 303.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 303.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 303.5	Under 303.5
betPARX1 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
BetRivers1 min ago	−115	−115
Bally Bet1 min ago	−114Best	—

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

303.5

No move since first seen