Joe Burrow
CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM
Game log against Over 280.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 280.5 Pass+Rush Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 150.7–419.7 pass+rush yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 280.5 · facts from past games, not a pickPass attempts + carries
Last 3: 39.7 attempts + carries · 2026: 41 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs TEN
Game lines
CIN −3 · total 52.5 (9 sportsbooks)
CIN's games this season closed at 46.8 on average (7 games)
ATL injuries
Divine Deablo (LB, Questionable, 5.7 tackles)
A player's role: his average over his last games played (up to 10)
Splits
Over 280.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 280.5
- Average
- 306
- +25.5 vs line
- Median
- 299.5
- +19 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 53%
- estimate · fair −111
Research, not a pick. At −115 the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 6/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 6/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook at 280.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 280.5 | Under 280.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada3 min ago | −115Best | −115Best |
Prices as of 9:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
280.5282.5 → 280.5 since first seen