Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals · QB · #9

CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM

Over Under25.5

Under 25.5 Completions, typical price −1055 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 25.5 Completions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at MIA, 2025-12-21: 25, hit, 32 attempts
vs ARI, 2025-12-28: 24, hit, 31 attempts
vs CLE, 2026-01-04: 29, missed, 39 attempts
vs TB, 2026-09-13: 25, hit, 35 attempts
at HOU, 2026-09-20: 20, hit, 31 attempts
at PIT, 2026-09-27: 28, missed, 37 attempts
vs JAX, 2026-10-04: 39, missed, 54 attempts
at MIA, 2026-10-11: 23, hit, 32 attempts
at BAL, 2026-10-25: 22, hit, 30 attempts
vs TEN, 2026-11-01: 38, missed, 48 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 25.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 15.5–35.2 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 25.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
ATL allow 23.3 completions a game to quarterbacks: 6th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 36.7 attempts · 2026: 38.1 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs TEN
Game lines
CIN −3 · total 52.5 (9 sportsbooks)
CIN's games this season closed at 46.8 on average (7 games)

Splits

Under 25.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against ATL on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 25.5

Average: 27.3; +1.8 vs line
Median: 25; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −105
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −103

Research, not a pick. At +102 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −103, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−12503 books	—	0/10
−4803 books	—	1/10
−2203 books	—	3/10
−1125 books	−1053 books	6/10
+1653 books	—	6/10
+2853 books	—	8/10
+4803 books	—	8/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 25.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 25.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 25.5	Under 25.5
Pinnacle2 min ago	−135	+102Best
Bovada1 min ago	−125	−105
betPARX3 min ago	−112Best	−129
Bally Bet1 min ago	−112Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−112Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

25.5

24.5 → 25.5 since first seen