Jaylen Waddle

Denver Broncos · WR · #17

DEN @ CAR · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price +1125 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
8 games with DEN; before that, MIA
Over 4.5 with DEN: 2 of 8; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10
Defense vs wide receivers
CAR allow 12.1 receptions a game to wide receivers: 9th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 6.7 targets · 2026: 6.4 (8 games)
Target share: 23% last 3 games · 20% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs KC

30%3 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 3 of his last 10 games (1 of 4 on the road).

vs CIN, 2025-12-21: 5, cleared, 9 targets
vs TB, 2025-12-28: 0, missed, 1 targets
at KC, 2026-09-14: 1, missed, 3 targets
vs JAX, 2026-09-20: 8, cleared, 10 targets
vs LAR, 2026-09-27: 2, missed, 7 targets
at SF, 2026-10-04: 5, cleared, 6 targets
at LAC, 2026-10-11: 2, missed, 5 targets
vs SEA, 2026-10-15: 4, missed, 7 targets
at ARI, 2026-10-25: 4, missed, 7 targets
vs KC, 2026-11-01: 3, missed, 6 targets

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CAR in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against CAR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CAR

Receptions: 6 in 9 targets, Oct 5, 2025 (away)

Over 4.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against CAR on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 3.4; −1.1 vs line
Median: 3.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 30%; 3 of 10
Price implies: 47%; at +112
Books’ fair: 44%; margin removed
Targets: 6.1; 10 games · 6.3 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 4.5 44%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−33353 books	—	8/10
−5604 books	—	6/10
−2004 books	—	5/10
+1125 books	−1503 books	3/10
+2204 books	—	1/10
+4254 books	—	1/10
+8504 books	—	1/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel6 min ago	+118Best	−158
Bovada6 min ago	+115	−150
Bally Bet6 min ago	+112	—
BetRivers6 min ago	+112	—
betPARX6 min ago	+110	−143Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:27 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

+118 → +112 since first seen