Javonte Williams
SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM
Game log against Under 80.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 80.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 29.1–122.7 rush+rec yards.
What's different on Sunday
Under 80.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs running backs
SF allow 115.1 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 24th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 25.3 carries + targets · 2026: 20.3 (9 games)
Target share: 11% last 2 games · 9% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at IND
Game lines
DAL +4 · total 56 (6 sportsbooks)
DAL's games this season closed at 50.6 on average (9 games)
Splits
Under 80.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 80.5
- Average
- 81
- +0.5 vs line
- Median
- 67
- −13.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −109
Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −109, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1573 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −1153 books | −1142 books | 6/10 | |
| — | — | 6/10 | |
| −1131 book | −1151 book | 7/10 | |
| +1953 books | — | 7/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks at 80.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 80.5 | Under 80.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX5 min ago | −115Best | −113Best |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −117 | −114 |
| Bally Bet5 min ago | −115Best | — |
Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
80.585.5 → 80.5 since first seen