Javonte Williams
SF @ DAL · Sun, Nov 15 4:25 PM
Game log against Over 2.5
40%4 of 10L10
Over 2.5 Receptions cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.
What's different on Sunday
Over 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pickSunDefense vs running backs
SF allow 6.8 receptions a game to running backs: the most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 3.6 (8 games)
Target share: 8% last 3 games · 9% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at IND
Game lines
DAL +4 · total 56 (6 sportsbooks)
DAL's games this season closed at 50.6 on average (9 games)
Splits
Over 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against SF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 2.5
- Average
- 2.6
- +0.1 vs line
- Median
- 2
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 40%
- 4 of 10
- Price implies
- 61%
- at −157
- Books’ fair
- 56%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 53%
- estimate · fair −113
Research, not a pick. At −129 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −113, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −100003 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −5304 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −1575 books | +1183 books | 4/10 | |
| +1604 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +3504 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +7504 books | — | 0/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle14 min ago | −129Best | −102 |
| Bally Bet14 min ago | −157 | — |
| betPARX14 min ago | −157 | +120Best |
| BetRivers14 min ago | −157 | — |
| FanDuel14 min ago | −158 | +118 |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 7:01 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
2.5Over: −180 → −157 since first seen