Jared Goff
DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
What's different on Sunday
Over 261.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
MIA allow 230.9 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 19th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 29 attempts · 2026: 35.4 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs MIN
Game lines
DET −7 · total 50.5 (8 sportsbooks)
DET's games this season closed at 51.8 on average (7 games)
Game log against Over 261.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 261.5 Passing Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 153–353.3 passing yards.
Splits
Over 261.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 261.5
- Average
- 285.6
- +24.1 vs line
- Median
- 287
- +25.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 53%
- estimate · fair −113
Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −113, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1541 book | — | 7/10 | |
| — | — | 7/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 7/10 | |
| −1142 books | −1142 books | 7/10 | |
| +1181 book | — | 5/10 | |
| +2051 book | — | 5/10 | |
| +3601 book | — | 4/10 |
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 261.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 261.5 | Under 261.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel5 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| Pinnacle5 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 12:34 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
261.5No move since first seen