Jared Goff

Detroit Lions · QB · #16

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under30.5

Over 30.5 Passing Attempts, typical price −1094 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 30.5 Passing Attempts cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

vs PIT, 2025-12-21: 54, cleared, 54 attempts
at MIN, 2025-12-25: 29, missed, 29 attempts
at CHI, 2026-01-04: 42, cleared, 42 attempts
vs NO, 2026-09-13: 39, cleared, 39 attempts
at BUF, 2026-09-17: 38, cleared, 38 attempts
vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 32, cleared, 32 attempts
at CAR, 2026-10-04: 52, cleared, 52 attempts
at ARI, 2026-10-11: 30, missed, 30 attempts
vs GB, 2026-10-25: 32, cleared, 32 attempts
vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 25, missed, 25 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 30.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 22.3–44.7 passing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Over 30.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs quarterbacks
MIA allow 27.9 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks: the fewest of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 29 attempts · 2026: 35.4 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs MIN
Game lines
DET −7 · total 50.5 (9 sportsbooks)
DET's games this season closed at 51.8 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 30.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 30.5

Average: 37.3; +6.8 vs line
Median: 35; +4.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −109
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −108 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5903 books	—	9/10
−2753 books	—	9/10
−1483 books	—	8/10
−1094 books	−1203 books	7/10
+1234 books	−1271 book	7/10
+2053 books	—	5/10
+3353 books	—	5/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 30.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 30.5 Passing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 30.5	Under 30.5
Bally Bet5 min ago	−108Best	—
betPARX6 min ago	−108Best	−120
BetRivers4 min ago	−109	−121
Bovada5 min ago	−130	+100Best

Prices as of 9:39 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

30.5

−114 → −109 since first seen