Jared Goff
DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
What's different on Sunday
Over 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs quarterbacks
MIA allow 21.4 completions a game to quarterbacks: 17th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 29 attempts · 2026: 35.4 (7 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs MIN
Game lines
DET −7 · total 50.5 (7 sportsbooks)
DET's games this season closed at 51.8 on average (7 games)
Game log against Over 21.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 21.5 Completions cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 16.1–28.9 completions.
Splits
Over 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 21.5
- Average
- 24.7
- +3.2 vs line
- Median
- 25.5
- +4 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 52%
- at −108
- Books’ fair
- 49%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 55%
- estimate · fair −123
Research, not a pick. At −108 the price beats our fair −123, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1081 book | −1221 book | 7/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 21.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 21.5 | Under 21.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle3 min ago | −108Best | −122Best |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 1:21 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
21.5Over No move since first seen