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Jameson Williams

Detroit Lions · WR · #1

NE @ DET · Sun, Nov 15 9:30 AM
OverUnder3.5
Over 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1436 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 3.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 at home).

  1. at MIN, 2025-12-25: 2, missed, 3 targets
  2. at CHI, 2026-01-04: 6, cleared, 8 targets
  3. vs NO, 2026-09-13: 4, cleared, 9 targets
  4. at BUF, 2026-09-17: 2, missed, 4 targets
  5. vs NYJ, 2026-09-27: 4, cleared, 4 targets
  6. at CAR, 2026-10-04: 6, cleared, 8 targets
  7. at ARI, 2026-10-11: 2, missed, 4 targets
  8. vs GB, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 9 targets
  9. vs MIN, 2026-11-01: 4, cleared, 6 targets
  10. at MIA, 2026-11-08: 1, missed, 2 targets
ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jared Goff: Questionable (chest). He led DET in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Over 3.5 with Goff at quarterback: 26 of 52; with another DET quarterback: no games

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    NE allow 12.9 receptions a game to wide receivers: 6th most of 32

    9 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5.7 targets · 2026: 5.8 (8 games)

    Target share: 21% last 3 games · 17% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at MIA

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 3.5

Average
3.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
4
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
59%
at −143
Books’ fair
54%
margin removed
Our chance
53%
estimate · fair −113

Research, not a pick. At −135 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −113, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−12504 books—9/10
−3454 books—6/10
−1436 books+1044 books6/10
+1504 books—3/10
+2854 books—2/10
+5004 books—0/10
+9504 books—0/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
Bovada14 min ago−135Best+105Best
FanDuel14 min ago−138+104
Pinnacle14 min ago−138+104
Bally Bet14 min ago−143—
betPARX14 min ago−143−103
BetRivers14 min ago−143—
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over: −138 → −143 since first seen

Jameson Williams's full game log and splits