Jalen Coker

Carolina Panthers · WR · #18

DEN @ CAR · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1066 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs TB, 2025-12-21: 3, hit, 5 targets
vs SEA, 2025-12-28: 2, hit, 2 targets
at TB, 2026-01-03: 6, missed, 7 targets
vs LAR, 2026-01-10: 9, missed, 12 targets
vs CHI, 2026-09-13: 8, missed, 9 targets
at ATL, 2026-09-20: 8, missed, 9 targets
at CLE, 2026-09-27: 2, hit, 4 targets
at PHI, 2026-10-18: 6, missed, 13 targets
vs TB, 2026-10-25: 1, hit, 4 targets
at GB, 2026-10-29: 2, hit, 5 targets

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Bryce Young led CAR in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 4.5 with Young at quarterback: 18 of 24; with another CAR quarterback: 5 of 5
Defense vs wide receivers
DEN allow 10.8 receptions a game to wide receivers: 16th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7.3 targets · 2026: 7.3 (6 games)
Target share: 20% last 3 games · 19% over 6 games this season
Rest
9 days off since Oct 29 at GB

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DEN in his last 10; Under 4.5 hit in 1 of 1 against DEN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs DEN

Receptions: 4 in 6 targets, Oct 27, 2024 (away)

Under 4.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against DEN on record

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 4.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −106
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −118

Research, not a pick. At −100 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −118, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−100003 books	—	1/10
−8354 books	—	4/10
−2784 books	—	5/10
−1246 books	−1064 books	5/10
+1634 books	—	5/10
+3004 books	—	7/10
+5754 books	—	7/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Pinnacle16 min ago	−132	−100Best
Bovada16 min ago	−125	−105
betPARX16 min ago	−122	−106
FanDuel16 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bally Bet16 min ago	−122	—
BetRivers16 min ago	−124	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:12 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

−110 → −106 since first seen