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Jahan Dotson

Atlanta Falcons · WR · #4

CIN @ ATL · Sun, Nov 8 9:30 AM
OverUnder1.5
Over 1.5 Receptions, typical price −1901 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Michael Penix Jr. led ATL in passing in 6 of 8 games this season

    Also led: Cooper Rush 2. Over 1.5 with Penix at quarterback: 4 of 6; with another ATL quarterback: 1 of 2

  • New team

    8 games with ATL; before that, PHI

    Over 1.5 with ATL: 5 of 8; his last 10 games before: 3 of 10

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    CIN allow 11.1 receptions a game to wide receivers: 15th most of 32

    7 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 4.3 targets · 2026: 3.8 (8 games)

    Target share: 14% last 3 games · 13% over 8 games this season

Game log against Over 1.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

  1. vs WSH, 2026-01-04: 3, cleared, 8 targets
  2. vs SF, 2026-01-11: 0, missed, 1 targets
  3. at PIT, 2026-09-13: 1, missed, 3 targets
  4. vs CAR, 2026-09-20: 2, cleared, 4 targets
  5. at GB, 2026-09-24: 1, missed, 3 targets
  6. at NO, 2026-10-05: 2, cleared, 3 targets
  7. vs BAL, 2026-10-11: 2, cleared, 4 targets
  8. vs CHI, 2026-10-18: 3, cleared, 5 targets
  9. vs SF, 2026-10-25: 1, missed, 3 targets
  10. at TB, 2026-11-01: 2, cleared, 5 targets
ClearedMissedThe 1.5 lineTargets

Count only

Over 1.5 · L10

L10 · Over 1.5

Average
1.7
+0.2 vs line
Median
2
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
66%
at −190
Books’ fair
62%
margin removed
Targets
3.9
10 games · 2.5 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 1.5 62%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−1901 book+1451 book6/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 1.5Under 1.5
Bovada4 min ago−190Best+145Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 12:45 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

−154 → −190 since first seen

Jahan Dotson's full game log and splits