Jadarian Price

Seattle Seahawks · RB · #8

SEA @ LV · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM

Over Under58.5

Under 58.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1154 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%3 of 5L5

Under 58.5 Rush+Rec Yards hit in 3 of his last 5 games (1 of 2 on the road).

vs NE, 2026-09-09: 58, hit, 12 carries + targets
at ARI, 2026-09-20: 60, missed, 15 carries + targets
at WSH, 2026-09-27: 22, hit, 8 carries + targets
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 37, hit, 14 carries + targets
vs ARI, 2026-11-08: 78, missed, 13 carries + targets

Under hitMissedThe 58.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 7.8–80.9 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 58.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunQuarterback
Sam Darnold: Out (quadriceps). He led SEA in passing in 6 of 9 games this season
Also led: Drew Lock 3 (Questionable, oblique, led the last game). Under 58.5 with Darnold at quarterback: 2 of 2; with another SEA quarterback: 1 of 3
SunBack from an absence
Sunday's game is his 3rd back after missing 4 games in a row (Oct 4 – Oct 25)
Under 58.5 since: 1 of 2
SunDefense vs running backs
LV allow 164.0 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: the most of 32
9 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 11.7 carries + targets · 2026: 12.4 (5 games)
Target share: 10% last 3 games · 10% over 5 games this season

Splits

Under 58.5 · L5 · counts, not in order

No game against LV on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L5 · Under 58.5

Average: 51; −7.5 vs line
Median: 58; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 3 of 5
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −143

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −143, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L5

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L5
−2003 books	—	2/5
—	—	2/5
−1144 books	−1153 books	3/5
−1151 book	−1151 book	3/5
+2053 books	—	4/5

Compare 4 sportsbooks at 58.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 58.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 58.5	Under 58.5
betPARX5 min ago	−113Best	−115Best
FanDuel5 min ago	−114	−115Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−114	−117
Bally Bet5 min ago	−113Best	—

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

58.5

−114 → −115 since first seen