Ja'Marr Chase

Cincinnati Bengals · WR · #1

PIT @ CIN · Sun, Nov 15 8:20 PM

Over Under7.5

Under 7.5 Receptions, typical price −1145 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs ARI, 2025-12-28: 7, hit, 9 targets
vs CLE, 2026-01-04: 8, missed, 10 targets
vs TB, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 4 targets
at HOU, 2026-09-20: 7, hit, 9 targets
at PIT, 2026-09-27: 9, missed, 12 targets
vs JAX, 2026-10-04: 3, hit, 3 targets
at MIA, 2026-10-11: 6, hit, 10 targets
at BAL, 2026-10-25: 5, hit, 7 targets
vs TEN, 2026-11-01: 11, missed, 16 targets
at ATL, 2026-11-08: 10, missed, 12 targets

Under hitMissedThe 7.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3–9 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Joe Burrow led CIN in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 7.5 with Burrow at quarterback: 21 of 34; with another CIN quarterback: 10 of 15
Defense vs wide receivers
PIT allow 12.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 12th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 11.7 targets · 2026: 9.1 (8 games)
Target share: 33% last 3 games · 25% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at ATL

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs PIT

Receptions: 9 in 12 targets, Sep 27 (away)

Under 7.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against PIT on record

L10 · Under 7.5

Average: 6.8; −0.7 vs line
Median: 7; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −150

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −150, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−20004 books	—	2/10
−6704 books	—	3/10
−3054 books	—	4/10
−1555 books	−1142 books	6/10
+1164 books	−1521 book	7/10
+1954 books	—	8/10
+3254 books	—	9/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
Pinnacle14 min ago	−121	−110Best
FanDuel14 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bally Bet14 min ago	−155	—
betPARX14 min ago	−155	—
BetRivers14 min ago	−155	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

8.5 → 7.5 since first seen