Isaiah Likely

New York Giants · TE · #9

NYG @ PHI · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1046 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs PIT, 2025-12-07: 4, missed, 6 targets
at GB, 2025-12-27: 3, missed, 3 targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 2, missed, 2 targets
vs DAL, 2026-09-13: 8, cleared, 8 targets
at LAR, 2026-09-21: 5, cleared, 10 targets
vs TEN, 2026-09-27: 2, missed, 5 targets
vs ARI, 2026-10-04: 7, cleared, 12 targets
at WSH, 2026-10-11: 11, cleared, 13 targets
vs NO, 2026-10-18: 6, cleared, 11 targets
at HOU, 2026-10-25: 2, missed, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–8 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Jameis Winston led NYG in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: J.J. McCarthy 1 (led the last game); Jaxson Dart 1. Over 4.5 with Winston at quarterback: 4 of 5; with another NYG quarterback: 1 of 2
New team
7 games with NYG; before that, BAL
Over 4.5 with NYG: 5 of 7; his last 10 games before: 1 of 10
Defense vs tight ends
PHI allow 4.1 receptions a game to tight ends: 29th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 9.3 targets · 2026: 9 (7 games)
Target share: 22% last 3 games · 26% over 7 games this season

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against PHI in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against PHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs PHI

Receptions: 2 in 2 targets, Oct 26, 2025 (away)

Over 4.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against PHI on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5; +0.5 vs line
Median: 4.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 51%; at −104
Books’ fair: 48%; margin removed
Our chance: 53%; estimate · fair −114

Research, not a pick. At +105 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −114, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−100003 books	—	10/10
−7704 books	—	7/10
−2454 books	—	6/10
−1046 books	−1274 books	5/10
+2004 books	—	4/10
+4004 books	—	3/10
+8004 books	—	2/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Pinnacle5 min ago	+105Best	−139
Bally Bet5 min ago	−103	—
betPARX2 min ago	−103	−127
BetRivers2 min ago	−104	—
Bovada5 min ago	−110	−120
FanDuel2 min ago	−114	−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:42 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

+116 → −104 since first seen