Isaiah Likely

New York Giants · TE · #9

NYG @ PHI · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under44.5

Over 44.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1174 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 44.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 5 on the road).

vs PIT, 2025-12-07: 25, missed, 6 targets
at GB, 2025-12-27: 27, missed, 3 targets
at PIT, 2026-01-04: 32, missed, 2 targets
vs DAL, 2026-09-13: 78, cleared, 8 targets
at LAR, 2026-09-21: 33, missed, 10 targets
vs TEN, 2026-09-27: 13, missed, 5 targets
vs ARI, 2026-10-04: 66, cleared, 12 targets
at WSH, 2026-10-11: 94, cleared, 13 targets
vs NO, 2026-10-18: 99, cleared, 11 targets
at HOU, 2026-10-25: 12, missed, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 44.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3.4–98.1 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 44.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Jameis Winston led NYG in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: J.J. McCarthy 1 (led the last game); Jaxson Dart 1. Over 44.5 with Winston at quarterback: 3 of 5; with another NYG quarterback: 1 of 2
New team
7 games with NYG; before that, BAL
Over 44.5 with NYG: 4 of 7; his last 10 games before: 2 of 10
Defense vs tight ends
PHI allow 41.6 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 28th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 9.3 targets · 2026: 9 (7 games)
Target share: 22% last 3 games · 26% over 7 games this season

Splits

Over 44.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against PHI in his last 10; Over 44.5 cleared in 0 of 1 against PHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs PHI

Receiving Yards: 8 in 2 targets, Oct 26, 2025 (away)

Over 44.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against PHI on record

L10 · Over 44.5

Average: 47.9; +3.4 vs line
Median: 32.5; −12 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −115

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −115, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4701 book	—	8/10
−3354 books	—	6/10
−1594 books	—	4/10
−1174 books	−1133 books	4/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	4/10
+1144 books	—	4/10
+1904 books	—	4/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 44.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 44.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 44.5	Under 44.5
Bovada2 min ago	−115Best	−115
Bally Bet2 min ago	−117	—
betPARX4 min ago	−117	−112Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−118	−113
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

44.5

40.5 → 44.5 since first seen