Harold Fannin Jr.Questionable

Cleveland Browns · TE · #44

CLE @ NO · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1273 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 4.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs BUF, 2025-12-21: 4, hit, 6 targets
vs PIT, 2025-12-28: 2, hit, 2 targets
at JAX, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 3 targets
at TB, 2026-09-20: 5, missed, 6 targets
vs CAR, 2026-09-27: 7, missed, 9 targets
vs PIT, 2026-10-01: 3, hit, 5 targets
at NYJ, 2026-10-11: 1, hit, 4 targets
vs BAL, 2026-10-18: 1, hit, 3 targets
at TEN, 2026-10-25: 6, missed, 9 targets
at PIT, 2026-11-01: 10, missed, 12 targets

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Deshaun Watson: Questionable (concussion). He led CLE in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Under 4.5 with Watson at quarterback: 4 of 8; with another CLE quarterback: 10 of 16
Defense vs tight ends
NO allow 6.4 receptions a game to tight ends: 6th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 8 targets · 2026: 6.4 (8 games)
Target share: 23% last 3 games · 20% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at PIT
3rd straight road game

Splits

Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NO on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 4.5

Average: 4.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 3.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −127
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −117

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −117, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5801 book	—	4/10
−2351 book	—	5/10
−1043 books	−1273 books	6/10
+1821 book	—	7/10
+3201 book	—	8/10
+5801 book	—	9/10
+9201 book	—	9/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
Bovada1 min ago	−120	−110Best
Pinnacle2 min ago	−104	−127
FanDuel1 min ago	−102Best	−130
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:44 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Under: −130 → −127 since first seen