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Greg Dulcich

Miami Dolphins · TE · #85

MIA @ IND · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM
OverUnder3.5
Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1122 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 3.5

50%5 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

  1. vs CIN, 2025-12-21: 3, hit, 3 targets
  2. vs TB, 2025-12-28: 5, missed, 6 targets
  3. at NE, 2026-01-04: 3, hit, 4 targets
  4. at LV, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 2 targets
  5. at SF, 2026-09-20: 2, hit, 3 targets
  6. vs KC, 2026-09-27: 5, missed, 7 targets
  7. vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 4, missed, 5 targets
  8. at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 5, missed, 5 targets
  9. vs NE, 2026-11-01: 4, missed, 6 targets
  10. vs DET, 2026-11-08: 2, hit, 4 targets
Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunQuarterback

    Malik Willis: Injured Reserve (abdomen). He led MIA in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 3.5 with Willis at quarterback: 3 of 7; with another MIA quarterback: 7 of 9

  • Defense vs tight ends

    IND allow 4.7 receptions a game to tight ends: 24th most of 32

    9 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5 targets · 2026: 4.6 (7 games)

    Target share: 19% last 3 games · 17% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 vs DET

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against IND on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs IND

Dulcich didn't play the Sep 7, 2025 meeting

L10 · Under 3.5

Average
3.5
±0 vs line
Median
3.5
±0 vs line
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −112
Books’ fair
49%
margin removed
Our chance
53%
estimate · fair −111

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−11001 book—0/10
−2901 book—3/10
−1182 books−1122 books5/10
+1781 book—7/10
+3501 book—10/10
+6301 book—10/10
+10001 book—10/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
FanDuel17 min ago−118Best−112Best
Pinnacle17 min ago−118Best−112Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:37 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: No move since first seen

Greg Dulcich's full game log and splits