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Greg Dulcich

Miami Dolphins · TE · #85

DET @ MIA · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder37.5
Over 37.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1142 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 37.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunDefense vs tight ends

    DET allow 97.7 receiving yards a game to tight ends: the most of 32

    7 games

  • Quarterback

    Malik Willis led MIA in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Over 37.5 with Willis at quarterback: 3 of 6; with another MIA quarterback: 5 of 9

  • Targets

    Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 4.7 (6 games)

    Target share: 20% last 3 games · 17% over 6 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 vs NE

Game log against Over 37.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 37.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

  1. at PIT, 2025-12-15: 46, cleared, 2 targets
  2. vs CIN, 2025-12-21: 46, cleared, 3 targets
  3. vs TB, 2025-12-28: 58, cleared, 6 targets
  4. at NE, 2026-01-04: 31, missed, 4 targets
  5. at LV, 2026-09-13: 18, missed, 2 targets
  6. at SF, 2026-09-20: 17, missed, 3 targets
  7. vs KC, 2026-09-27: 55, cleared, 7 targets
  8. vs CIN, 2026-10-11: 36, missed, 5 targets
  9. at NYJ, 2026-10-25: 86, cleared, 5 targets
  10. vs NE, 2026-11-01: 43, cleared, 6 targets
ClearedMissedThe 37.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 3.8–77 receiving yards.

Splits

Over 37.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 37.5

Average
43.6
+6.1 vs line
Median
44.5
+7 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Our chance
51%
estimate · fair −102

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −102, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−2901 book—8/10
−2001 book—8/10
pick'em onlypick'em only6/10
−1142 books−1142 books6/10
−1021 book—6/10
+1741 book—3/10
+2801 book—1/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 37.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 37.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 37.5Under 37.5
FanDuel3 min ago−114Best−114Best
Pinnacle3 min ago−114Best−114Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 3:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

37.5

No move since first seen

Greg Dulcich's full game log and splits