Geno Smith

New York Jets · QB · #7

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Over 4.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1141 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

50%5 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Rushing Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 6 at home).

vs DEN, 2025-12-07: 4, missed, 1 carries
vs NYG, 2025-12-28: 1, missed, 1 carries
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 7, cleared, 6 carries
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 17, cleared, 5 carries
at DET, 2026-09-27: 12, cleared, 2 carries
vs CLE, 2026-10-11: 7, cleared, 5 carries
at NE, 2026-10-18: -1, missed, 2 carries
vs MIA, 2026-10-25: 0, missed, 2 carries
vs LV, 2026-11-01: 4, missed, 1 carries
at KC, 2026-11-08: 8, cleared, 1 carries

ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineCarries

What's different on Sunday

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunCarries
Last 3: 1.3 carries · 2026: 3 (8 games) · down 57%
New team
8 games with NYJ; before that, LV
Over 4.5 with NYJ: 5 of 8; his last 10 games before: 5 of 10
Defense vs quarterbacks
BUF allow 12.0 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks: 23rd most of 32
8 games
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at KC

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Over 4.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BUF

Smith didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; rushing yards the last time Smith faced them: 16 (Oct 27, 2024)

Over 4.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against BUF on record

L10 · Over 4.5

Average: 5.9; +1.4 vs line
Median: 5.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Carries: 2.6; 10 games · 2.9 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 4.5 50%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1141 book	−1141 book	5/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	5/10
+1941 book	—	2/10
+3601 book	—	1/10
+6301 book	—	0/10
+9201 book	—	0/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:10 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

No move since first seen