Geno Smith

New York Jets · QB · #7

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under31.5

Under 31.5 Passing Attempts, typical price −1074 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 31.5 Passing Attempts hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs NYG, 2025-12-28: 28, hit, 28 attempts
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 24, hit, 24 attempts
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 41, missed, 41 attempts
at DET, 2026-09-27: 37, missed, 37 attempts
at CHI, 2026-10-04: 15, hit, 15 attempts
vs CLE, 2026-10-11: 30, hit, 30 attempts
at NE, 2026-10-18: 30, hit, 30 attempts
vs MIA, 2026-10-25: 30, hit, 30 attempts
vs LV, 2026-11-01: 32, missed, 32 attempts
at KC, 2026-11-08: 32, missed, 32 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 31.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 21.9–40.8 passing attempts.

What's different on Sunday

Under 31.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

SunDefense vs quarterbacks
BUF allow 37.5 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks: 3rd most of 32
8 games
New team
9 games with NYJ; before that, LV
Under 31.5 with NYJ: 5 of 9; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10
Pass attempts
Last 3: 31.3 attempts · 2026: 30.1 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at KC

Splits

Under 31.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 31.5 hit in 1 of 1 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BUF

Smith didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; passing attempts the last time Smith faced them: 29 (Oct 27, 2024)

Under 31.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 31.5

Average: 29.9; −1.6 vs line
Median: 30; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −107
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −104

Research, not a pick. At −106 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −104, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7153 books	—	2/10
−3603 books	—	2/10
−2053 books	—	3/10
−1244 books	−1073 books	6/10
+1303 books	—	8/10
+1953 books	—	8/10
+2953 books	—	9/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 31.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 31.5 Passing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 31.5	Under 31.5
betPARX4 min ago	−124	−106Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−124	−107
Bovada3 min ago	+100Best	−130
Bally Bet4 min ago	−124	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

31.5

−125 → −107 since first seen