Geno Smith

New York Jets · QB · #7

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under20.5

Under 20.5 Completions, typical price −1304 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 20.5 Completions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs NYG, 2025-12-28: 20, hit, 28 attempts
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 19, hit, 24 attempts
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 27, missed, 41 attempts
at DET, 2026-09-27: 31, missed, 37 attempts
at CHI, 2026-10-04: 8, hit, 15 attempts
vs CLE, 2026-10-11: 17, hit, 30 attempts
at NE, 2026-10-18: 20, hit, 30 attempts
vs MIA, 2026-10-25: 23, missed, 30 attempts
vs LV, 2026-11-01: 20, hit, 32 attempts
at KC, 2026-11-08: 18, hit, 32 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 20.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 12.5–29.1 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 20.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

New team
9 games with NYJ; before that, LV
Under 20.5 with NYJ: 6 of 9; his last 10 games before: 7 of 10
Defense vs quarterbacks
BUF allow 22.9 completions a game to quarterbacks: 7th most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 31.3 attempts · 2026: 30.1 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at KC

Splits

Under 20.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 20.5 hit in 0 of 1 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BUF

Smith didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; completions the last time Smith faced them: 21 (Oct 27, 2024)

Under 20.5 hit in 0 of 1 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 20.5

Average: 20.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 20; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −116

Research, not a pick. At −110 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −116, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4203 books	—	2/10
−1653 books	—	4/10
−1184 books	−1302 books	7/10
+1183 books	—	7/10
+2053 books	—	8/10
+3603 books	—	8/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 20.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 20.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 20.5	Under 20.5
betPARX5 min ago	−118	−110Best
Bovada5 min ago	+100Best	−130
Bally Bet5 min ago	−118	—
BetRivers5 min ago	−120	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:39 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

20.5

Under isn't priced at 20.5 right now.