Garrett WilsonQuestionable

New York Jets · WR · #5

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Receptions, typical price −1326 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 5.5 Receptions hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs DEN, 2025-10-12: 3, hit, 8 targets
vs CLE, 2025-11-09: 0, hit, 3 targets
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 6, missed, 7 targets
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 5, hit, 7 targets
at DET, 2026-09-27: 10, missed, 13 targets
at CHI, 2026-10-04: 3, hit, 4 targets
vs CLE, 2026-10-11: 7, missed, 11 targets
at NE, 2026-10-18: 4, hit, 6 targets
vs MIA, 2026-10-25: 2, hit, 3 targets
vs LV, 2026-11-01: 6, missed, 12 targets

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Geno Smith led NYJ in passing in 9 of 9 games this season
Under 5.5 with Smith at quarterback: 4 of 8; with another NYJ quarterback: 18 of 33
Defense vs wide receivers
BUF allow 11.3 receptions a game to wide receivers: 15th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7 targets · 2026: 7.9 (8 games)
Target share: 23% last 3 games · 26% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at KC
Wilson sat the last game (Nov 8)

Splits

Under 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 5.5 hit in 2 of 4 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BUF

Wilson didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; receptions the last time Wilson faced them: 4 (Sep 14, 2025)

Under 5.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 5.5

Average: 4.6; −0.9 vs line
Median: 4.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −132
Books’ fair: 53%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −131

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −131, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−16674 books	—	2/10
−4804 books	—	4/10
−2004 books	—	5/10
+1006 books	−1324 books	6/10
+1884 books	—	8/10
+3404 books	—	9/10
+6004 books	—	9/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
FanDuel3 min ago	−114	−114Best
Bovada3 min ago	+100	−130
betPARX3 min ago	+102Best	−132
Pinnacle3 min ago	+101	−134
Bally Bet3 min ago	+102Best	—
BetRivers3 min ago	+100	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:41 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

−120 → −132 since first seen