Garrett WilsonQuestionable

New York Jets · WR · #5

BUF @ NYJ · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under61.5

Under 61.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 61.5 Receiving Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

vs DEN, 2025-10-12: 13, hit, 8 targets
vs CLE, 2025-11-09: 0, hit, 3 targets
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 79, missed, 7 targets
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 57, hit, 7 targets
at DET, 2026-09-27: 107, missed, 13 targets
at CHI, 2026-10-04: 27, hit, 4 targets
vs CLE, 2026-10-11: 104, missed, 11 targets
at NE, 2026-10-18: 44, hit, 6 targets
vs MIA, 2026-10-25: 26, hit, 3 targets
vs LV, 2026-11-01: 83, missed, 12 targets

Under hitMissedThe 61.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 17.2–99.8 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 61.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Geno Smith led NYJ in passing in 9 of 9 games this season
Under 61.5 with Smith at quarterback: 4 of 8; with another NYJ quarterback: 20 of 33
Defense vs wide receivers
BUF allow 146.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 16th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 7 targets · 2026: 7.9 (8 games)
Target share: 23% last 3 games · 26% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at KC
Wilson sat the last game (Nov 8)

Splits

Under 61.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF in his last 10; Under 61.5 hit in 2 of 4 against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs BUF

Wilson didn't play the Jan 4 meeting; receiving yards the last time Wilson faced them: 50 (Sep 14, 2025)

Under 61.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against BUF on record

L10 · Under 61.5

Average: 54; −7.5 vs line
Median: 50.5; −11 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 51%; estimate · fair −105

Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −105, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2054 books	—	5/10
−1254 books	—	6/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	6/10
−1153 books	−1142 books	6/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	6/10
+1234 books	—	6/10
+1804 books	—	7/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 61.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 61.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 61.5	Under 61.5
betPARX5 min ago	−115Best	−113Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−117	−114
Bally Bet5 min ago	−115Best	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:27 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

61.5

63.5 → 61.5 since first seen