Emmett Johnson
NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
Game log against Over 30.5
43%3 of 7L7
Over 30.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 3 of his last 7 games (2 of 3 at home).
Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 0–108.9 rush+rec yards.
What's different on Sunday
Over 30.5 · facts from past games, not a pickDefense vs running backs
NYJ allow 131.6 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 12th most of 32
8 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 5 carries + targets · 2026: 5.1 (7 games)
Target share: 11% last 3 games · 8% over 6 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 at DEN
Game lines
KC −10 · total 47.5 (7 sportsbooks)
KC's games this season closed at 44.1 on average (7 games)
Splits
Over 30.5 · L7 · counts, not in orderNo game against NYJ on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L7 · Over 30.5
- Average
- 44.9
- +14.4 vs line
- Median
- 24
- −6.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 43%
- 3 of 7
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 53%
- estimate · fair −111
Research, not a pick. At −113 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −111, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L7| Line | Over | Under | L7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1953 books | — | 3/7 | |
| — | — | 3/7 | |
| −1144 books | −1153 books | 3/7 | |
| +3353 books | — | 2/7 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 30.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 30.5 | Under 30.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet2 min ago | −113Best | — |
| betPARX3 min ago | −113Best | −115 |
| BetRivers2 min ago | −114 | −117 |
| FanDuel2 min ago | −114 | −114Best |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 6:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
30.532.5 → 30.5 since first seen