Emeka EgbukaQuestionable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · WR · #2

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Receptions, typical price −1676 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Baker Mayfield led TB in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Jalon Daniels 3. Over 3.5 with Mayfield at quarterback: 12 of 20; with another TB quarterback: 2 of 3
Defense vs wide receivers
CHI allow 9.5 receptions a game to wide receivers: 28th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 9.7 targets · 2026: 8.2 (6 games)
Target share: 31% last 3 games · 25% over 6 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs ATL
Egbuka has missed the last 2 games

50%5 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 on the road).

vs ATL, 2025-12-11: 4, cleared, 7 targets
at CAR, 2025-12-21: 1, missed, 2 targets
at MIA, 2025-12-28: 3, missed, 5 targets
vs CAR, 2026-01-03: 1, missed, 3 targets
at CIN, 2026-09-13: 5, cleared, 6 targets
vs CLE, 2026-09-20: 3, missed, 5 targets
vs MIN, 2026-09-27: 5, cleared, 9 targets
vs GB, 2026-10-04: 2, missed, 4 targets
at DAL, 2026-10-08: 6, cleared, 9 targets
vs PIT, 2026-10-18: 7, cleared, 16 targets

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 3.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 3.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −167
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −145 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25003 books	—	8/10
−4554 books	—	7/10
−1676 books	+1254 books	5/10
+1384 books	pick'em only	4/10
+2804 books	—	2/10
+5754 books	—	1/10
+12004 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Bovada7 min ago	−145Best	+110
Bally Bet7 min ago	−165	—
betPARX7 min ago	−165	+125
BetRivers7 min ago	−167	—
FanDuel7 min ago	−172	+128Best
Pinnacle7 min ago	−172	+128Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:34 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

−162 → −167 since first seen