Emeka Egbuka

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · WR · #2

TB @ CHI · Sun, Nov 8 8:20 PM

Over Under51.5

Under 51.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1173 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 51.5 Receiving Yards hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 on the road).

vs ATL, 2025-12-11: 64, missed, 7 targets
at CAR, 2025-12-21: 40, hit, 2 targets
at MIA, 2025-12-28: 20, hit, 5 targets
vs CAR, 2026-01-03: 8, hit, 3 targets
at CIN, 2026-09-13: 63, missed, 6 targets
vs CLE, 2026-09-20: 16, hit, 5 targets
vs MIN, 2026-09-27: 62, missed, 9 targets
vs GB, 2026-10-04: 13, hit, 4 targets
at DAL, 2026-10-08: 38, hit, 9 targets
vs PIT, 2026-10-18: 48, hit, 16 targets

Under hitMissedThe 51.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 12–68.4 receiving yards.

What's different on Sunday

Under 51.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Baker Mayfield led TB in passing in 5 of 8 games this season
Also led: Jalon Daniels 3. Under 51.5 with Mayfield at quarterback: 11 of 20; with another TB quarterback: 3 of 3
Defense vs wide receivers
CHI allow 149.6 receiving yards a game to wide receivers: 13th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 9.7 targets · 2026: 8.2 (6 games)
Target share: 31% last 3 games · 25% over 6 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 1 vs ATL
Egbuka has missed the last 2 games

Splits

Under 51.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CHI on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 51.5

Average: 37.2; −14.3 vs line
Median: 39; −12.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −117
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −150

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −150, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2154 books	—	5/10
−1254 books	—	7/10
−1151 book	−1151 book	7/10
−1133 books	−1172 books	7/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	7/10
+1254 books	—	7/10
+1904 books	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 51.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 51.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 51.5	Under 51.5
betPARX6 min ago	−113Best	−115Best
BetRivers6 min ago	−114	−117
Bally Bet6 min ago	−113Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:21 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

51.5

−114 → −117 since first seen