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Elijah Higgins

Arizona Cardinals · TE · #84

LAR @ ARI · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Receptions, typical price −1661 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 2.5

40%4 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Receptions hit in 4 of his last 10 games (0 of 3 at home).

  1. vs ATL, 2025-12-21: 7, missed, 8 targets
  2. at CIN, 2025-12-28: 0, hit, 1 targets
  3. at LAR, 2026-01-04: 3, missed, 3 targets
  4. at SF, 2026-09-27: 3, missed, 3 targets
  5. at NYG, 2026-10-04: 2, hit, 2 targets
  6. vs DET, 2026-10-11: 3, missed, 3 targets
  7. at LAR, 2026-10-18: 3, missed, 3 targets
  8. vs DEN, 2026-10-25: 3, missed, 3 targets
  9. at DAL, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 4 targets
  10. at SEA, 2026-11-08: 2, hit, 2 targets
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jacoby Brissett led ARI in passing in 7 of 9 games this season

    Also led: Gardner Minshew II 2 (Injured Reserve, elbow, led the last game). Under 2.5 with Brissett at quarterback: 9 of 16; with another ARI quarterback: 27 of 28

  • Defense vs tight ends

    LAR allow 5.2 receptions a game to tight ends: 17th most of 32

    9 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 3 targets · 2026: 2.9 (7 games)

    Target share: 7% last 3 games · 7% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at SEA

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs LAR

Receptions: 3 in 3 targets, Oct 18 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against LAR on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.8
+0.3 vs line
Median
3
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
62%
at −166
Books’ fair
58%
margin removed
Our chance
56%
estimate · fair −126

Research, not a pick. At −166 the price is worse than our fair −126, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−14501 book—1/10
−2501 book—1/10
+1241 book−1661 book4/10
+2801 book—9/10
+6301 book—9/10
+12001 book—9/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
FanDuel11 min ago+124Best−166Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−152 → −166 since first seen

Elijah Higgins's full game log and splits