Devaughn Vele

New Orleans Saints · WR · #14

CAR @ NO · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Receptions, typical price +1305 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

at TB, 2025-12-07: 3, missed, 5 targets
vs CAR, 2025-12-14: 5, cleared, 6 targets
at DET, 2026-09-13: 7, cleared, 9 targets
at BAL, 2026-09-20: 5, cleared, 7 targets
vs LV, 2026-09-27: 3, missed, 6 targets
vs ATL, 2026-10-05: 6, cleared, 9 targets
vs MIN, 2026-10-11: 4, cleared, 6 targets
at NYG, 2026-10-18: 3, missed, 6 targets
vs PIT, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 5 targets
vs CLE, 2026-11-08: 2, missed, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Tyler Shough led NO in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 3.5 with Shough at quarterback: 7 of 14; with another NO quarterback: 0 of 3
Defense vs wide receivers
CAR allow 12.4 receptions a game to wide receivers: 10th most of 32
8 games
Targets
Last 3: 5 targets · 2026: 6.5 (8 games)
Target share: 15% last 3 games · 17% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs CLE

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CAR

Receptions: 5 in 6 targets, Dec 14, 2025 (home)

Over 3.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against CAR on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 4.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 4.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 43%; at +130
Books’ fair: 42%; margin removed
Our chance: 50%; estimate · fair +100

Research, not a pick. At +130 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair +100, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5904 books	—	10/10
−1864 books	—	9/10
+1305 books	−1543 books	6/10
+2654 books	—	5/10
+5004 books	—	2/10
+9504 books	—	1/10
+14001 book	—	0/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Bally Bet15 min ago	+130Best	—
betPARX15 min ago	+130Best	−190
BetRivers15 min ago	+130Best	—
FanDuel15 min ago	+116	−154Best
Pinnacle15 min ago	+116	−154Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:33 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over: −122 → +130 since first seen