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Dawson Knox

Buffalo Bills · TE · #88

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
OverUnder7.5
Over 7.5 Receiving Yards, typical price −1141 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Over 7.5

40%4 of 10L10

Over 7.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

  1. vs NYJ, 2026-01-04: 24, cleared, 2 targets
  2. at JAX, 2026-01-11: 30, cleared, 3 targets
  3. at DEN, 2026-01-17: 32, cleared, 5 targets
  4. at HOU, 2026-09-13: 7, missed, 1 targets
  5. vs DET, 2026-09-17: 5, missed, 2 targets
  6. vs LAC, 2026-09-27: 5, missed, 1 targets
  7. vs NE, 2026-10-04: 13, cleared, 2 targets
  8. at LAR, 2026-10-12: 6, missed, 3 targets
  9. at LV, 2026-10-18: 0, missed, 1 targets
  10. vs BAL, 2026-11-01: 6, missed, 2 targets
ClearedMissedThe 7.5 lineTargets

What's different on Monday

Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Josh Allen led BUF in passing in 7 of 7 games this season

    Over 7.5 with Allen at quarterback: 30 of 46; with another BUF quarterback: 1 of 1

  • Defense vs tight ends

    MIN allow 39.0 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 29th most of 32

    7 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 2 targets · 2026: 1.7 (7 games)

    Target share: 7% last 3 games · 6% over 7 games this season

  • Rest

    7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL

Splits

Over 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 7.5

Average
12.8
+5.3 vs line
Median
6.5
−1 vs line
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10
Price implies
53%
at −114
Books’ fair
50%
margin removed
Targets
2.2
10 games · 3.2 in 2025

Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 7.5 50%.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−1821 book—9/10
−1141 book−1141 book4/10
pick'em onlypick'em only4/10
+1181 book—4/10
+2001 book—3/10
+3201 book—3/10
+5201 book—2/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 7.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Receiving Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 7.5Under 7.5
FanDuel7 min ago−114Best−114Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 5:48 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

No move since first seen

Dawson Knox's full game log and splits