Daniel Jones

Indianapolis Colts · QB · #17

MIA @ IND · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under182.5

Over 182.5 Passing Yards, typical price −1142 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 182.5 Passing Yards cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at JAX, 2025-12-07: 60, missed, 7 attempts
vs BAL, 2026-09-13: 166, missed, 31 attempts
at KC, 2026-09-20: 210, cleared, 31 attempts
vs HOU, 2026-09-27: 235, cleared, 36 attempts
at WSH, 2026-10-04: 143, missed, 34 attempts
at PIT, 2026-10-11: 267, cleared, 44 attempts
vs TEN, 2026-10-18: 269, cleared, 42 attempts
at MIN, 2026-10-25: 108, missed, 22 attempts
at JAX, 2026-11-01: 144, missed, 28 attempts
vs DAL, 2026-11-08: 180, missed, 34 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 182.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 127.7–274.6 passing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 182.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
MIA allow 223.3 passing yards a game to quarterbacks: 23rd most of 32
8 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 28 attempts · 2026: 33.6 (9 games)
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 vs DAL
Game lines
IND −4 · total 38.5 (6 sportsbooks)
IND's games this season closed at 45.4 on average (9 games)

Splits

Over 182.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 10; Over 182.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs MIA

Passing Yards: 272 in 29 attempts, Sep 7, 2025 (home)

Over 182.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against MIA on record

L10 · Over 182.5

Average: 178.2; −4.3 vs line
Median: 173; −9.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −109

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −109, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−6001 book	—	8/10
−2751 book	—	6/10
−1401 book	—	5/10
−1142 books	−1142 books	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
—	—	4/10
+1361 book	—	4/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 182.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 182.5 Passing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 182.5	Under 182.5
FanDuel14 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Pinnacle15 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:22 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

182.5

No move since first seen