Dalton Schultz

Houston Texans · TE · #86

HOU @ CLE · Sun, Nov 15 1:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Receptions, typical price +1056 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Receptions cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (1 of 6 on the road).

at PIT, 2026-01-12: 3, missed, 4 targets
at NE, 2026-01-18: 2, missed, 2 targets
vs BUF, 2026-09-13: 4, cleared, 8 targets
vs CIN, 2026-09-20: 12, cleared, 14 targets
at IND, 2026-09-27: 3, missed, 3 targets
vs DAL, 2026-10-04: 2, missed, 2 targets
at TEN, 2026-10-11: 3, missed, 4 targets
at JAX, 2026-10-18: 4, cleared, 6 targets
vs NYG, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 6 targets
at LAC, 2026-11-08: 2, missed, 4 targets

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–6 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
C.J. Stroud led HOU in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 3.5 with Stroud at quarterback: 22 of 48; with another HOU quarterback: 5 of 7
Defense vs tight ends
CLE allow 5.2 receptions a game to tight ends: 17th most of 32
9 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 5.9 (8 games)
Target share: 16% last 3 games · 17% over 8 games this season
Rest
6 days off since Nov 8 at LAC

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against CLE in his last 10; Over 3.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against CLE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs CLE

Receptions: 1 in 2 targets, Jan 13, 2024 (home)

Over 3.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against CLE on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 4; +0.5 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 49%; at +105
Books’ fair: 46%; margin removed
Our chance: 49%; estimate · fair +104

Research, not a pick. At +107 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair +104, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9104 books	—	10/10
−2404 books	—	7/10
+1056 books	−1354 books	4/10
+2304 books	—	2/10
+5004 books	—	1/10
+10504 books	—	1/10
+12601 book	—	1/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Bally Bet15 min ago	+107Best	—
betPARX15 min ago	+107Best	−139
BetRivers15 min ago	+105	—
Bovada15 min ago	+105	−135
FanDuel15 min ago	−102	−130Best
Pinnacle15 min ago	−102	−130Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:05 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over: +110 → +105 since first seen