Dalton KincaidQuestionable
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Over 42.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 42.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 0–110.3 receiving yards.
What's different on Monday
Over 42.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Josh Allen led BUF in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Over 42.5 with Allen at quarterback: 19 of 46; with another BUF quarterback: 1 of 1
Defense vs tight ends
MIN allow 39.0 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 29th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 5 (7 games)
Target share: 19% last 3 games · 17% over 7 games this season
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL
Splits
Over 42.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 42.5
- Average
- 56
- +13.5 vs line
- Median
- 43
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 50%
- estimate · fair −101
Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −101, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4201 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −2654 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1374 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1153 books | −1142 books | 5/10 | |
| −1151 book | −1151 book | 5/10 | |
| −1162 books | −1142 books | 5/10 | |
| +1254 books | — | 4/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks at 42.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 42.5 | Under 42.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −115Best | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −115Best | −113Best |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −117 | −114 |
Prices as of 8:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
42.546.5 → 42.5 since first seen