Dalton KincaidQuestionable
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Under 43.5
50%5 of 10L10
Under 43.5 Receiving Yards hit in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 0–110.3 receiving yards.
What's different on Monday
Under 43.5 · facts from past games, not a pickQuarterback
Josh Allen led BUF in passing in 7 of 7 games this season
Under 43.5 with Allen at quarterback: 27 of 46; with another BUF quarterback: 0 of 1
Defense vs tight ends
MIN allow 39.0 receiving yards a game to tight ends: 29th most of 32
7 games
Targets
Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 5 (7 games)
Target share: 19% last 3 games · 17% over 7 games this season
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 vs BAL
Splits
Under 43.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 43.5
- Average
- 56
- +12.5 vs line
- Median
- 43
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −117
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 50%
- estimate · fair −101
Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −101, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4201 book | — | 2/10 | |
| −2754 books | — | 3/10 | |
| −1394 books | — | 5/10 | |
| −1134 books | −1173 books | 5/10 | |
| −1153 books | −1143 books | 5/10 | |
| +1234 books | — | 6/10 | |
| +2004 books | — | 6/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks at 43.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 43.5 | Under 43.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bovada6 min ago | −115 | −115Best |
| betPARX6 min ago | −112Best | −117 |
| BetRivers6 min ago | −113 | −118 |
| Bally Bet6 min ago | −112Best | — |
Prices as of 10:05 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
43.546.5 → 43.5 since first seen