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Colby ParkinsonQuestionable

Los Angeles Rams · TE · #84

LAR @ ARI · Sun, Nov 15 4:05 PM
OverUnder3.5
Under 3.5 Receptions, typical price +1041 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 3.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

  1. at CAR, 2026-01-10: 2, hit, 3 targets
  2. at CHI, 2026-01-18: 3, hit, 7 targets
  3. at SEA, 2026-01-25: 3, hit, 4 targets
  4. vs SF, 2026-09-10: 1, hit, 2 targets
  5. vs NYG, 2026-09-21: 2, hit, 2 targets
  6. at DEN, 2026-09-27: 0, hit, 1 targets
  7. vs BUF, 2026-10-12: 1, hit, 2 targets
  8. vs ARI, 2026-10-18: 5, missed, 6 targets
  9. at LV, 2026-10-25: 5, missed, 6 targets
  10. at WSH, 2026-11-08: 4, missed, 4 targets
Under hitMissedThe 3.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • SunTargets

    Last 3: 5.3 targets · 2026: 3.3 (7 games) · up 61%

    Target share: 15% last 3 games · 8% over 7 games this season

  • Quarterback

    Matthew Stafford led LAR in passing in 9 of 9 games this season

    Under 3.5 with Stafford at quarterback: 28 of 40; with another LAR quarterback: 1 of 1

  • Defense vs tight ends

    ARI allow 5.1 receptions a game to tight ends: 19th most of 32

    9 games

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 8 at WSH

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs ARI

Receptions: 5 in 6 targets, Oct 18 (home)

Under 3.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against ARI on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average
2.6
−0.9 vs line
Median
2.5
−1 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
49%
at +104
Books’ fair
46%
margin removed
Our chance
53%
estimate · fair −112

Research, not a pick. At +104 the price beats our fair −112, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−14001 book—3/10
−3401 book—5/10
−1381 book+1041 book7/10
+1621 book—8/10
+3101 book—10/10
+5801 book—10/10
+9201 book—10/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 3.5Under 3.5
FanDuel1 min ago−138Best+104Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:23 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Under: +112 → +104 since first seen

Colby Parkinson's full game log and splits