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Christian WatsonQuestionable

Green Bay Packers · WR · #9

GB @ NE · Sun, Nov 8 4:25 PM
OverUnder4.5
Over 4.5 Receptions, typical price −1486 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different on Sunday

Over 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Jordan Love led GB in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Over 4.5 with Love at quarterback: 8 of 37; with another GB quarterback: 1 of 3

  • Defense vs wide receivers

    NE allow 12.0 receptions a game to wide receivers: 10th most of 32

    8 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 8.7 targets · 2026: 8.3 (8 games)

    Target share: 21% last 3 games · 21% over 8 games this season

  • Rest

    9 days off since Oct 29 vs CAR

Game log against Over 4.5

60%6 of 10L10

Over 4.5 Receptions cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

  1. vs BAL, 2025-12-27: 5, cleared, 6 targets
  2. at CHI, 2026-01-10: 3, missed, 7 targets
  3. at MIN, 2026-09-13: 6, cleared, 8 targets
  4. at NYJ, 2026-09-20: 4, missed, 11 targets
  5. vs ATL, 2026-09-24: 7, cleared, 10 targets
  6. at TB, 2026-10-04: 3, missed, 3 targets
  7. vs CHI, 2026-10-11: 6, cleared, 8 targets
  8. vs DAL, 2026-10-18: 3, missed, 8 targets
  9. at DET, 2026-10-25: 5, cleared, 8 targets
  10. vs CAR, 2026-10-29: 8, cleared, 10 targets
ClearedMissedThe 4.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 2–7 receptions.

Splits

Over 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against NE on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 4.5

Average
5
+0.5 vs line
Median
5
+0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
60%
at −148
Books’ fair
56%
margin removed
Our chance
55%
estimate · fair −122

Research, not a pick. At −141 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −122, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−10004 books—10/10
−3154 books—7/10
−1486 books+1124 books6/10
+1454 books—4/10
+2704 books—2/10
+5104 books—1/10
+9504 books—0/10
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 4.5Under 4.5
Bally Bet3 min ago−141Best—
betPARX3 min ago−141Best+108
BetRivers3 min ago−141Best—
FanDuel3 min ago−148+112
Pinnacle3 min ago−148+112
Bovada3 min ago−160+120Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 4:35 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

Over: −141 → −148 since first seen

Christian Watson's full game log and splits